Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Recent US-Iran framework agreement on reopening the Strait has lifted near-term hopes for normalized shipping, yet persistent security risks, de-mining requirements, and elevated insurance premiums continue to constrain vessel transits to a fraction of the pre-February 2026 average of roughly 100 daily passages. With traffic data showing minimal movement since the June 10 closure announcement and …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been publish…