Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has eased immediate risks but has not yet resolved the practical barriers to full traffic recovery.** The Strait of Hormuz has seen severely restricted commercial shipping since late February 2026 amid the Iran war, with Iran declaring closures or imposing threats on transits and the US enforcing a naval presence and blockade elements. Daily transits remain a…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been publish…