Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Persistent US-Iran tensions and Iranian restrictions on shipping have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely depressed since early 2026, with daily transits averaging under 20 vessels versus pre-crisis levels near 100. As of late August, war-risk insurance premiums remain around 40 times normal, major carriers continue rerouting or avoiding the waterway, and recent incidents including a…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pub…