Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?. Current implied probability: 1% yes. Total volume: $21.4M. Resolves August 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, including recent vessel attacks and indefinite naval blockade threats as of mid-August 2026, continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 1-12 ships daily versus the pre-disruption norm of 60-100. This has driven elevated war-risk insurance premiums, rerouting costs, and volatility in global crude oil and LNG benchmarks, with…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been publi…