Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Traders assessing prospects for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement track stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks, last held in February 2026 after earlier Abu Dhabi and Geneva sessions produced only prisoner exchanges. Core disputes center on territorial control in Donetsk and other regions, with Russia insisting on Ukrainian withdrawals and recognition of annexed areas while Ukraine rejects cedi…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspe…