Russia nuclear test by...?
Russia has not conducted a full-yield nuclear explosive test since 1990 and maintains its moratorium under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework, despite withdrawing ratification in 2023. Recent developments include May 2026 strategic nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and large-scale drills, plus a successful Sarmat ICBM flight test, which traders view as standard s…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus…