Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner. Current implied probability: 96% yes. Total volume: $2.0M. Resolves August 18, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
ElectionsPoliticsPrimariesprimary elections
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$2.0M
24h volume
$14K
Liquidity
$354K
Open interest
$352K
Resolves
Aug 18, 2026
Comments
54
7d volume
$62K
30d volume
$270K
1yr volume
$1.6M
Competitive
82.2%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?▲ 0.7% 1w▲ 4.5% 1m
0.8% spread
96%
2
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?▼ 0.6% 1d▼ 0.9% 1w▼ 4.5% 1m
0.2% spread
3%
3
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?▼ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.5% 1w▲ 0.4% 1m
0.6% spread
1%
4
Will Wilton Simpson be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.1% spread
0%
5
Will Casey DeSantis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.1% spread
0%
6
Will Matt Gaetz be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.1% spread
0%
7
Will Jimmy Patronis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.1% spread
0%
8
Will another candidate be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
100.0% spread
0%
Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001
Order BookByron Donalds
Mid 96.1¢
PriceContractsTotal
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Price change▲ 0.7% 1w▲ 4.5% 1m
📊 Market context
President Trump's early and sustained endorsement has consolidated Republican support behind U.S. Representative Byron Donalds in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary, scheduled for August 18. Donalds maintains commanding polling leads, often 46-54 percent among GOP voters compared to single digits for rivals like James Fishback and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, while significantly outraising the field.…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
