OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $1.9M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
OpenAI IPOBig TechOpenAIIPOIPOs
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$1.9M
24h volume
$734
Liquidity
$75K
Open interest
$68K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
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7d volume
$12K
30d volume
$88K
1yr volume
$1.3M
Competitive
91.0%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?▲ 1.0% 1d▲ 3.0% 1w▲ 29.0% 1m
3.0% spread
83%
2
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 1.3% 1m
1.5% spread
5%
3
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 4.4% 1m
0.8% spread
3%
4
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 1.9% 1w▼ 11.3% 1m
0.9% spread
2%
5
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?▲ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.4% 1w▼ 10.1% 1m
0.7% spread
0%
6
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 2.9% 1m
0.6% spread
0%
7
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 1.2% 1m
**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listi…
Rules summary
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be …
