Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026. Current implied probability: 5% yes. Total volume: $22.4M. Resolves October 10, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
AwardsPoliticsGeopoliticsWorld
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$22.4M
24h volume
$18K
Liquidity
$2.0M
Open interest
$1.2M
Resolves
Oct 10, 2026
Comments
198
7d volume
$121K
30d volume
$1.8M
1yr volume
$20.5M
Competitive
87.8%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 2.6% 1d▲ 1.4% 1w▲ 7.3% 1m
2.3% spread
12%
2
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1.0% spread
8%
3
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▼ 0.6% 1d▼ 1.1% 1w▼ 2.3% 1m
0.1% spread
7%
4
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.7% 1w▲ 0.9% 1m
0.8% spread
5%
5
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.2% 1w▼ 2.8% 1m
0.2% spread
5%
6
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▼ 0.3% 1d▲ 0.6% 1w▲ 0.5% 1m
0.2% spread
4%
7
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
0.1% spread
2%
8
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
2%
9
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.2% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.5% 1m
0.5% spread
2%
10
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
1%
11
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.2% 1w▲ 0.7% 1m
0.4% spread
1%
12
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.4% 1m
0.2% spread
1%
13
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
14
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
1%
15
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
16
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
1%
17
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d
0.1% spread
1%
18
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
19
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
21
Will any other person or organization win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
100.0% spread
0%
Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001
Order BookDonald Trump
Mid 4.8¢
PriceContractsTotal
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Price change▲ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.2% 1w▼ 2.8% 1m
📊 Market context
With 287 nominees creating an unusually crowded field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, trader sentiment reflects broad uncertainty ahead of the October announcement. Volodymyr Zelenskyy holds the slim lead on the strength of Ukraine’s ongoing resistance to Russian aggression, yet recent public nominations for Donald Trump—backed by leaders in Israel, Cambodia, and Pakistan—have kept his odds compet…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the…
