Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban). Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $65.9M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
PoliticsGeopoliticsStarmerRewards 20, 4.5, 50
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$65.9M
24h volume
$491K
Liquidity
$1.1M
Open interest
$245K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
112
7d volume
$6.8M
30d volume
$65.0M
1yr volume
$65.9M
Competitive
80.8%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?▲ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.5% 1w▲ 68.3% 1m
0.3% spread
99%
2
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.2% 1w▼ 53.0% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
3
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
4
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
5
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 8.4% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
6
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w
0.1% spread
0%
7
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?▲ 0.1% 1w
0.1% spread
0%
8
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
9
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
10
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
11
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.3% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
12
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1% spread
0%
13
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
14
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1% spread
0%
15
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1% spread
0%
16
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1d
0.1% spread
0%
17
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
18
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1w
0.1% spread
0%
19
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
20
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.9% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
21
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
22
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 2.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
23
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
24
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?▼ 0.2% 1m
Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure …
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri…
