OpenFlowNATO x Russia military clash by...?. Current implied probability: 100% yes. Total volume: $6.4M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
US intelligence assessments in mid-to-late August 2026 prompted CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow, where he reportedly warned Russian officials against limited strikes, drone or missile incursions, or border probes targeting Baltic states to test NATO’s Article 5 commitment. Russian officials dismissed the reports as unfounded while continuing large-scale operations against Ukraine and…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces a…