What are the current odds for: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 49% as of 2026-08-30. Total volume on this market is $7.9M. This market resolves on January 1, 2027.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?. Current implied probability: 49% yes. Total volume: $7.9M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.

measlesPandemicsScienceMeaslesRewards 20, 4.5, 50

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Opens Dec 1, 2025Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Total volume

$7.9M

24h volume

$846

Liquidity

$20K

Open interest

$79K

Resolves

Jan 1, 2027

Comments

—

7d volume

$100K

30d volume

$177K

1yr volume

$547K

Competitive

100.0%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.4% 1w▲ 1.5% 1m

0.1% spread

100%

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 0.2% 1d▲ 0.7% 1w▲ 2.1% 1m

0.1% spread

100%

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.5% 1w▲ 13.2% 1m

0.1% spread

100%

Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.3% 1w▲ 7.8% 1m

0.3% spread

99%

Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 0.2% 1d▲ 1.2% 1w▲ 23.2% 1m

2.6% spread

96%

Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 4.5% 1w▲ 48.0% 1m

1.0% spread

89%

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▼ 0.5% 1w

2.0% spread

67%

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 2.0% 1w▲ 35.5% 1m

1.0% spread

49%

Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▼ 1.5% 1d▲ 1.0% 1w▲ 2.0% 1m

1.0% spread

14%

Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▲ 1.0% 1w▲ 2.5% 1m

2.0% spread

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?▼ 0.8% 1d▲ 0.3% 1w▲ 0.9% 1m

0.4% spread

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

100.0% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.01Maker rewards ≥ 20 USDCMax spread: 5.5%

Order Book↑5k

Mid 49.0¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▲ 2.0% 1w▲ 35.5% 1m

📊 Market context

With more than 2,900 confirmed U.S. measles cases reported through late August 2026—already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289—ongoing domestic outbreaks in low-vaccination communities continue to drive cumulative counts. CDC data show 94% of cases linked to unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals, with 36–37 outbreaks and recent acceleration adding over 200 cases in a single week, pri…

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases repor…