OpenFlowKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $72.3M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
US strikes on Iranian military targets at Kharg Island in March, April, and July 2026, combined with repeated threats by the Trump administration to seize or occupy the island to pressure Tehran over Strait of Hormuz access and oil exports, form the core driver of trader positioning. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, making it a high-value leverage point in the ongoing conflict. I…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announce…