Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $63.8M. Resolves March 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
⭐ FeaturedKhameneiIran RegimeKharg IslandIran
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$63.8M
24h volume
$576K
Liquidity
$339K
Open interest
$2.3M
Resolves
Mar 31, 2026
Comments
487
7d volume
$2.0M
30d volume
$4.2M
1yr volume
$4.4M
Competitive
84.8%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?▲ 1.9% 1d▲ 2.8% 1w▲ 2.1% 1m
0.1% spread
8%
2
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?▲ 0.5% 1d▼ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
2%
3
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
0.1% spread
0%
4
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 5.1% 1w▼ 22.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
5
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 3.8% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
6
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?▼ 1.5% 1w▼ 7.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?▼ 3.2% 1w
0.1% spread
0%
8
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?▼ 0.4% 1w
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated in recent days that American forces will seize Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling nearly all of its crude shipments, to gain leverage in the ongoing conflict that began in late February 2026 and to pressure Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier US airstrikes in March and April targeted Iranian military sites on the island w…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announce…
