Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Recent US-Iran negotiations produced a memorandum of understanding on June 14, 2026, intended to end more than 100 days of hostilities that began with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February. The interim pact includes an immediate halt to military operations across fronts, including Lebanon, the lifting of the US naval blockade, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a 60-day windo…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.…