Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?. Current implied probability: 100% yes. Total volume: $25.7M. Resolves August 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated following the 2026 conflict's multiple ceasefire breakdowns. A Pakistan-mediated pause in April and a June memorandum of understanding aimed to halt hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address nuclear and navigation issues within a 60-day window, but the arrangement collapsed in July after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels prompted ren…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other co…