Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at a permanent ceasefire and security arrangements including Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, have produced repeated short-term truces since April 2026 but no binding agreement. Hezbollah rejected the latest Washington-brokered proposal in early June, insisting on full Israeli pullback and criticizing terms as i…

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on…