OpenFlowIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $8.4M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
A U.S.-mediated framework agreement signed in late June 2026 conditions any phased Israeli redeployment from southern Lebanon on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment across designated zones, rather than fixed timelines. The deal establishes limited pilot areas for initial Israeli pullbacks, after which further withdrawals hinge on results monitored by a U.S.-involv…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this mark…