Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $7.5M. Resolves June 30, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
⭐ FeaturedGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanon
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$7.5M
24h volume
$59K
Liquidity
$466K
Open interest
$580K
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026
Comments
224
7d volume
$211K
30d volume
$2.0M
1yr volume
$2.4M
Competitive
87.1%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?▼ 0.5% 1d
1.0% spread
12%
2
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?▲ 0.5% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w
1.0% spread
5%
3
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?▲ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.7% 1w
0.2% spread
2%
4
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 14.0% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
5
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.9% 1w
0.1% spread
0%
6
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.8% 1w▼ 6.4% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
7
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?▼ 2.1% 1w▼ 2.7% 1m
Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition …
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this mark…
