OpenFlowIsrael closes its airspace by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $27.6M. Resolves October 1, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israeli authorities have repeatedly closed or severely restricted civilian airspace during escalations with Iran, including full suspensions in February-March and June 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile/drone retaliations that prompted NOTAMs and airline cancellations. As of late August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open after repeated reopenings, though EASA maintains a caut…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limi…