Iran leadership change by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $19.7M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
MojtabaayatollahPoliticsIran Regime
Iran leadership change by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$19.7M
24h volume
$30K
Liquidity
$201K
Open interest
$817K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
1,078
7d volume
$410K
30d volume
$741K
1yr volume
$3.7M
Competitive
96.3%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?▼ 0.5% 1d▲ 5.0% 1w
1.0% spread
30%
2
Iran leadership change by December 31?▲ 4.0% 1w▲ 5.0% 1m
1.0% spread
21%
3
Iran leadership change by September 30?▼ 1.0% 1d▲ 3.0% 1w
1.0% spread
14%
4
Iran leadership change by July 31?▼ 0.9% 1d▼ 0.3% 1w
0.1% spread
3%
5
Iran leadership change by March 31?
0.1% spread
0%
6
Iran leadership change by March 13?
0.1% spread
0%
7
Iran leadership change by April 30?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 5.0% 1w▼ 13.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
8
Iran leadership change by May 31?▼ 0.7% 1d▼ 2.6% 1w▼ 6.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
9
Iran leadership change by June 30?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 0.9% 1w▼ 5.5% 1m
**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict.
This rapid clerical and IR…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of w…
