Iran leader end of 2026?. Current implied probability: 6% yes. Total volume: $28.6M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Middle EastIranWorldGeopolitics
Iran leader end of 2026?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$28.6M
24h volume
$1.7M
Liquidity
$1.6M
Open interest
$726K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
140
7d volume
$8.7M
30d volume
$12.7M
1yr volume
$28.3M
Competitive
92.7%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
179%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 4.7% 1w▼ 5.5% 1m
0.5% spread
26%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?▼ 1.4% 1d▲ 2.9% 1w▲ 3.0% 1m
1.0% spread
34%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.4% 1d▲ 0.8% 1w▼ 1.1% 1m
0.4% spread
4
2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.5% 1w▲ 2.2% 1m
0.8% spread
51%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▲ 0.2% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.7% 1m
0.3% spread
61%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.5% 1m
0.2% spread
71%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
81%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▲ 0.4% 1w▼ 0.5% 1m
0.3% spread
91%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.3% spread
100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1w
0.4% spread
110%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w
0.1% spread
120%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
130%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
140%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
150%
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
160%
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
170%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
180%
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▲ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
190%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
200%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
210%
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
220%
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1w
0.1% spread
230%
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
240%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
250%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
260%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
270%
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
280%
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
290%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
300%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
310%
Will Other be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
321%
Will Mohammad Pakpour be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
330%
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1% spread
340%
Will o be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
350%
Will p be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
360%
Will q be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
370%
Will r be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
380%
Will s be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
390%
Will t be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
400%
Will u be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
410%
Will v be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
420%
Will w be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
430%
Will x be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
440%
Will y be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
450%
Will z be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
460%
Will aa be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
470%
Will ab be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
480%
Will ac be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
490%
Will ad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
500%
Will ae be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
510%
Will af be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
520%
Will ag be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
530%
Will ah be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
540%
Will ai be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
550%
Will aj be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
560%
Will ak be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
570%
Will al be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
580%
Will am be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
590%
Will an be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
600%
Will ao be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
610%
Will ap be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
620%
Will aq be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
630%
Will ar be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
640%
Will as be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
650%
Will at be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
660%
Will au be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
670%
Will av be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
680%
Will aw be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
690%
Will ax be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
700%
Will ay be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
710%
Will az be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
720%
Will ba be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
730%
Will bb be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
740%
Will bc be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
750%
Will bd be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
760%
Will be be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
770%
Will bf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
780%
Will bg be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
790%
Will bh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
800%
Will bi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
810%
Will bj be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
820%
Will bk be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
830%
Will bl be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
840%
Will bm be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
850%
Will bn be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
860%
Will bo be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
870%
Will bp be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
880%
Will bq be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
890%
Will br be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
900%
Will bs be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
910%
Will bt be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
920%
Will bu be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
930%
Will bv be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
940%
Will bw be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
950%
Will bx be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
960%
Will by be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
970%
Will bz be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
980%
Will ca be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
990%
Will cb be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1000%
Will cc be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1010%
Will cd be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1020%
Will ce be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1030%
Will cf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1040%
Will cg be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1050%
Will ch be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1060%
Will ci be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1070%
Will cj be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1080%
Will ck be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1090%
Will cl be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1100%
Will cm be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1110%
Will cn be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1120%
Will co be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1130%
Will cp be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1140%
Will cq be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1150%
Will cr be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1160%
Will cs be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1170%
Will ct be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1180%
Will cu be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1190%
Will cv be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1200%
Will cw be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1210%
Will cx be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1220%
Will cy be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
1230%
Will cz be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100.0% spread
Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 100 USDCMax spread: 4.5%
Order BookNo Head of State
Mid 6.3¢
PriceContractsTotal
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Price change▼ 0.1% 1h▼ 1.4% 1d▲ 2.9% 1w▲ 3.0% 1m
📊 Market context
Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with comma…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition b…