OpenFlowIran full airspace closure by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $8.9M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran's airspace management remains shaped by persistent US-Iran military tensions and regional spillover risks. Western sectors have stayed closed indefinitely since early June 2026 following security assessments and NOTAM issuances tied to strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Eastern portions partially reopened for limited overflights above FL285, though radar gaps, GPS interference, and air defens…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commerc…