Iran coup attempt by...?

Iran's political landscape in mid-June 2026 reflects consolidation following the February–May war with the United States and Israel, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, establishment of an interim leadership council, and a June 14 memorandum of understanding aimed at formalizing a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Regime institutions, led by IRGC figures such as Major G…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such a…