Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $17.3M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
GeopoliticsTrumpMiddle EastIran Ceasefire
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$17.3M
24h volume
$2K
Liquidity
$252K
Open interest
$549K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
217
7d volume
$143K
30d volume
$766K
1yr volume
$3.1M
Competitive
88.8%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?▼ 12.5% 1m
1.0% spread
14%
2
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?▼ 0.5% 1w
1.0% spread
6%
3
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▲ 1.9% 1w
0.9% spread
5%
4
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?▼ 0.4% 1w▼ 6.7% 1m
0.1% spread
1%
5
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 5.3% 1w▼ 8.9% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
6
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 1.6% 1w▼ 11.5% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
7
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?▼ 1.1% 1d▼ 12.2% 1w▼ 7.4% 1m
Ongoing US-Iran negotiations following 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities center on the roughly 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, with Washington pressing for its dilution, removal, or destruction under IAEA verification in exchange for sanctions relief. Iranian officials, including the foreign minister, have described the issue as postponed or a red line, citing a Suprem…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or pla…
