OpenFlowIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $17.8M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
**Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on a June 2026 Memorandum of Understanding that addresses Iran's enriched uranium stockpile without requiring its immediate surrender or export.** The interim accord commits both sides to negotiate a final deal within 60 days (later extended amid delays) on the "disposition of stockpiled enriched material," specifying on-site down-blending under IAEA supervision …
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or pla…