Human moon landing in 2026?
**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" for a human moon landing in 2026 (97% implied probability) due to confirmed schedule shifts in NASA's Artemis program.** Artemis II, the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo, launched successfully on April 1, 2026, and returned in mid-April, validating SLS and Orion systems but without any landing capability. NASA then restructured the sequence in February 2…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.