OpenFlowHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?. Current implied probability: 88% yes. Total volume: $50.2M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Persistent inflation, with July core PCE holding at 3.3% year-over-year and headline rising to 3.7%, alongside geopolitical supply shocks, has anchored the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range and driven market-implied odds of zero rate cuts in 2026 to 87.9%. The FOMC’s June dot plot revised the 2026 median rate higher to 3.8%, reflecting nine participants favoring at least one hike by year…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut…