What are the current odds for: How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 100% as of 2026-08-30. Total volume on this market is $7.4M. This market resolves on January 1, 2027.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?. Current implied probability: 100% yes. Total volume: $7.4M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.

How many different countries will Israel strikeIsraelIranMiddle EastPolitics

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Opens Nov 13, 2025Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Total volume

$7.4M

24h volume

$250

Liquidity

$337K

Open interest

$29K

Resolves

Jan 1, 2027

Comments

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7d volume

$55K

30d volume

$88K

1yr volume

$1.4M

Competitive

88.8%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?▲ 1.7% 1d▲ 9.7% 1w▲ 41.9% 1m

2.0% spread

83%

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 6.2% 1w▼ 25.0% 1m

2.2% spread

10%

Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.8% 1w▼ 3.8% 1m

3.5% spread

Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.7% 1w▲ 0.3% 1m

0.6% spread

Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m

0.9% spread

Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?▲ 0.3% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 1.1% 1m

0.2% spread

Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.3% 1m

0.1% spread

Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?▼ 0.2% 1m

0.5% spread

Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?▼ 0.8% 1m

0.1% spread

Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m

0.1% spread

Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?▼ 0.7% 1m

0.1% spread

Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026?

0.1% spread

Will Israel strike 0 countries in 2026?▼ 1.1% 1d▼ 1.7% 1w▼ 2.3% 1m

0.1% spread

100%

Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026?▼ 1.0% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.2% 1m

0.1% spread

Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?▼ 1.9% 1d▼ 2.1% 1w▼ 3.1% 1m

0.1% spread

Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?▼ 34.2% 1d▼ 34.3% 1w▼ 16.4% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 20 USDCMax spread: 4.5%

Order Book0

Mid 100.0¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▼ 1.1% 1d▼ 1.7% 1w▼ 2.3% 1m

📊 Market context

Israel’s 2026 military operations have centered on Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria amid the February–June Iran war and subsequent ceasefire enforcement. Major Israeli and U.S. strikes targeted Iranian sites in February and June, while repeated airstrikes continue against Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs, including early August actions. Gaza operations persist against …

Rules summary

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qual…