How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?. Current implied probability: 100% yes. Total volume: $7.3M. Resolves December 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
How many different countries will Israel strikeIsraelIranMiddle EastPolitics
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$7.3M
24h volume
$1K
Liquidity
$364K
Open interest
$28K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Comments
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7d volume
$66K
30d volume
$522K
1yr volume
$5.3M
Competitive
99.8%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?▲ 3.1% 1d▲ 3.6% 1w▼ 2.3% 1m
3.7% spread
47%
2
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?▼ 1.6% 1d▼ 2.9% 1w▲ 3.8% 1m
2.9% spread
36%
3
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?▲ 0.3% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.6% spread
3%
4
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?▼ 0.4% 1m
0.4% spread
2%
5
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.9% spread
2%
6
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.2% 1w▲ 0.2% 1m
0.5% spread
1%
7
Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?▲ 0.3% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.4% 1m
1.1% spread
0%
8
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m
0.8% spread
0%
9
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?▲ 0.3% 1w▲ 0.2% 1m
0.4% spread
0%
10
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
11
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.2% spread
0%
12
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026?▲ 0.1% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w
0.2% spread
0%
13
Will Israel strike 0 countries in 2026?▼ 1.1% 1d▼ 1.7% 1w▼ 2.3% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
14
Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026?▼ 1.0% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▲ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
3%
15
Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?▼ 1.9% 1d▼ 2.1% 1w▼ 3.1% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
16
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?▼ 34.2% 1d▼ 34.3% 1w▼ 16.4% 1m
Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained airstrikes and ground actions against Iran since the February 28 outbreak of direct conflict, alongside expanded targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon. These actions, including strikes on leadership and military sites in both countries, form the core of recent activity amid ongoing proxy confrontations involving groups s…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qual…
