What are the current odds for: Fed Decision in September?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 2% as of 2026-07-16. Total volume on this market is $3.1M. This market resolves on September 16, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

FOMCfomcEconomic PolicyJerome PowellFed Rates

Fed Decision in September?

Opens May 13, 2026Resolves Sep 16, 2026

Total volume

$3.1M

24h volume

$235K

Liquidity

$677K

Open interest

$938K

Resolves

Sep 16, 2026

Comments

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7d volume

$1.0M

30d volume

$2.8M

1yr volume

$3.1M

Competitive

97.3%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?▲ 5.0% 1d▲ 7.5% 1w▼ 4.0% 1m

1.0% spread

67%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?▼ 7.0% 1d▼ 8.0% 1w▲ 10.5% 1m

1.0% spread

28%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?▲ 0.3% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 5.8% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.3% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.4% 1w▲ 0.1% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 50 USDCMax spread: 4.5%

Order Book50+ bps decrease

Mid 2.3¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.3% 1m

📊 Market context

Persistent inflation pressures, with May CPI reaching 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 May job gains and 4.3% unemployment, have tilted trader consensus toward no change or modest tightening at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent upward revisions to FOMC projections under the new chair, alongside sol…

Rules summary

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (…