What are the current odds for: Fed Decision in July?

According to OpenFlow's prediction market aggregator, the current implied probability is 96% as of 2026-07-16. Total volume on this market is $66.6M. This market resolves on July 29, 2026.

How does OpenFlow aggregate prediction market odds?

OpenFlow aggregates live order books across on-chain prediction market venues, applies cross-venue price improvement, and displays unified Yes/No implied probabilities. Users trade on their own exchange — OpenFlow routes fills and settles exchange-to-exchange via USDC on Solana.

⭐ FeaturedFOMCfomcEconomic PolicyEconomyJerome Powell

Fed Decision in July?

Opens Mar 20, 2026Resolves Jul 29, 2026

Total volume

$66.6M

24h volume

$2.4M

Liquidity

$5.0M

Open interest

$12.7M

Resolves

Jul 29, 2026

Comments

7d volume

$18.3M

30d volume

$56.3M

1yr volume

$66.6M

Competitive

82.7%

Odds history

#OutcomeChance

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?▲ 0.5% 1d▲ 10.3% 1w▲ 2.3% 1m

0.1% spread

96%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 10.7% 1w▲ 1.2% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 2.4% 1m

0.1% spread

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?▼ 0.1% 1d

0.1% spread

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?▼ 0.8% 1m

0.1% spread

Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 200 USDCMax spread: 4.5%

Order BookNo change

Mid 95.8¢

PriceContractsTotal

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Price change▲ 0.5% 1d▲ 10.3% 1w▲ 2.3% 1m

📊 Market context

Persistent inflation pressures from the May 2026 CPI report, which showed a 4.2% year-over-year rise driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the June decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 79.5%, refl…

Rules summary

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. …