Fed Decision in July?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $144.0M. Resolves July 29, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.

FOMCEconomic PolicyEconomyJerome Powellfomc

Fed Decision in July?

Opens Resolves
Total volume
$144.0M
24h volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Open interest
$42.0M
Resolves
Jul 29, 2026
Comments
1
#OutcomeChance
1Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?▲ 23.1% 1d▲ 23.3% 1w▲ 19.4% 1m
0.1% spread
100%
2Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
3Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.3% 1w▼ 1.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
4Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?▼ 22.9% 1d▼ 22.5% 1w▼ 17.6% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 0.8% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001
Price change▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m

Rules summary

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. …