Clacton by-election Winner. Current implied probability: 96% yes. Total volume: $2.2M. Resolves June 30, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
UKClactonPoliticsElections
Clacton by-election Winner
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$2.2M
24h volume
$108K
Liquidity
$484K
Open interest
$1.4M
Resolves
Jun 30, 2027
Comments
77
7d volume
$1.3M
30d volume
$2.2M
1yr volume
$2.2M
Competitive
82.8%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?▼ 0.8% 1d▲ 5.1% 1w
0.2% spread
96%
2
Will Person B win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
3
Will Person C win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
4
Will Person D win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
5
Will Person E win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
6
Will Person F win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
7
Will Person G win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
8
Will Person H win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
9
Will Person I win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
10
Will Person J win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
11
Will Person K win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
12
Will Person L win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
13
Will Person M win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
14
Will Person N win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
15
Will Person O win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
16
Will Person P win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
17
Will Person Q win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
18
Will Person R win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
19
Will Person S win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
20
Will Person T win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
21
Will Person U win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
22
Will Person V win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
23
Will Person W win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
24
Will Person X win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
25
Will Person Y win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
26
Will Person Z win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
27
Will Person AA win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
28
Will Person AB win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
29
Will Person AC win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
30
Will Person AD win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
31
Will Person AE win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
32
Will Person AF win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
33
Will Person AG win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
34
Will Person AH win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
35
Will Person AI win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
36
Will Person AJ win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
37
Will Person AK win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
38
Will Person AL win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
39
Will Person AM win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
40
Will Person AN win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
41
Will Person AO win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
42
Will Person AP win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
43
Will Person AQ win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
44
Will Person AR win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
45
Will someone else win the Clacton by-election?
100.0% spread
50%
46
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?▲ 0.4% 1d▼ 4.1% 1w
0.1% spread
4%
47
Will Giles Watling win the Clacton by-election?
0.1% spread
0%
48
Will Jovan Owusu-Nepaul win the Clacton by-election?
0.1% spread
0%
49
Will Matthew Bensilum win the Clacton by-election?
0.1% spread
0%
50
Will Natasha Osben win the Clacton by-election?
0.1% spread
0%
51
Will Tony Mack win the Clacton by-election?
0.1% spread
0%
52
Will Andrew Pemberton win the Clacton by-election?
**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives.…
Rules summary
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council …
