OpenFlowBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place. Current implied probability: 1% yes. Total volume: $5.7M. Resolves October 4, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Recent national polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first in the October 4 first round at 38–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consistently second at 33–37 percent and the rest of the field—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury—confined to single digits. This ordering has held across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and other surveys cond…
Rules summary
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this…