Ballon d'Or Winner 2026. Current implied probability: 2% yes. Total volume: $7.9M. Resolves October 31, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Soccer
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$7.9M
24h volume
$537K
Liquidity
$2.4M
Open interest
$494K
Resolves
Oct 31, 2026
Comments
159
7d volume
$1.6M
30d volume
$3.8M
1yr volume
$7.9M
Competitive
99.3%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
142%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▲ 22.7% 1d▲ 29.1% 1w
0.1% spread
231%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▲ 11.4% 1d▲ 22.8% 1w▲ 13.3% 1m
0.8% spread
317%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 30.0% 1d▼ 7.6% 1w▼ 10.8% 1m
0.6% spread
43%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 10.0% 1w▼ 11.2% 1m
0.3% spread
52%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 25.1% 1w▼ 6.2% 1m
0.3% spread
61%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▲ 0.3% 1d▲ 0.5% 1w▼ 2.4% 1m
0.2% spread
71%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.7% 1d▼ 3.8% 1w▼ 7.2% 1m
0.2% spread
81%
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▲ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.9% 1w▼ 0.8% 1m
0.3% spread
91%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▲ 0.2% 1d▼ 4.8% 1w▼ 1.0% 1m
0.2% spread
101%
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.3% 1d▲ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.7% 1m
0.2% spread
110%
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.3% 1d▲ 0.2% 1w▼ 8.3% 1m
0.3% spread
120%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 5.9% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.2% 1m
0.1% spread
130%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.9% 1d▼ 0.7% 1w▼ 3.6% 1m
0.1% spread
140%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
150%
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 1.6% 1m
0.1% spread
160%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
170%
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
180%
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
190%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 2.3% 1m
0.1% spread
200%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 3.2% 1m
0.1% spread
210%
Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0.1% spread
220%
Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.5% 1m
0.1% spread
230%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 1.3% 1w▼ 1.6% 1m
0.1% spread
240%
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.4% 1m
0.1% spread
250%
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.1% 1w▼ 0.1% 1m
0.1% spread
260%
Will someone else win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
270%
Will [Placeholder P] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
280%
Will [Placeholder R] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
290%
Will [Placeholder T] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
300%
Will [Placeholder V] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
310%
Will [Placeholder X] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
320%
Will [Placeholder Z] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
330%
Will [Placeholder AB] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
340%
Will [Placeholder AD] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
350%
Will [Placeholder AF] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
360%
Will [Placeholder AH] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
370%
Will [Placeholder AJ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
380%
Will [Placeholder AL] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
390%
Will [Placeholder AN] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
400%
Will [Placeholder AP] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
410%
Will [Placeholder AR] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
420%
Will [Placeholder AT] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
430%
Will [Placeholder AV] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
440%
Will [Placeholder AX] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
450%
Will [Placeholder AZ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
460%
Will [Placeholder BB] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
470%
Will [Placeholder BD] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
480%
Will [Placeholder BF] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
490%
Will [Placeholder BH] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
500%
Will [Placeholder BJ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
510%
Will [Placeholder BL] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
520%
Will [Placeholder BN] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
530%
Will [Placeholder BP] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
540%
Will [Placeholder BR] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
550%
Will [Placeholder BT] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
560%
Will [Placeholder BV] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
570%
Will [Placeholder BX] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
580%
Will [Placeholder BZ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
590%
Will [Placeholder Q] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
600%
Will [Placeholder S] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
610%
Will [Placeholder U] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
620%
Will [Placeholder W] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
630%
Will [Placeholder Y] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
640%
Will [Placeholder AA] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
650%
Will [Placeholder AC] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
660%
Will [Placeholder AE] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
670%
Will [Placeholder AG] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
680%
Will [Placeholder AI] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
690%
Will [Placeholder AK] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
700%
Will [Placeholder AM] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
710%
Will [Placeholder AO] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
720%
Will [Placeholder AQ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
730%
Will [Placeholder AS] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
740%
Will [Placeholder AU] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
750%
Will [Placeholder AW] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
760%
Will [Placeholder AY] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
770%
Will [Placeholder BA] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
780%
Will [Placeholder BC] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
790%
Will [Placeholder BE] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
800%
Will [Placeholder BG] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
810%
Will [Placeholder BI] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
820%
Will [Placeholder BK] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
830%
Will [Placeholder BM] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
840%
Will [Placeholder BO] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
850%
Will [Placeholder BQ] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
860%
Will [Placeholder BS] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
870%
Will [Placeholder BU] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
880%
Will [Placeholder BW] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
890%
Will [Placeholder BY] win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100.0% spread
Min order: 5 USDCTick: 0.001Maker rewards ≥ 50 USDCMax spread: 4.5%
Order BookKylian Mbappé
Mid 2.4¢
PriceContractsTotal
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Price change▲ 0.4% 1h▼ 0.5% 1d▼ 25.1% 1w▼ 6.2% 1m
📊 Market context
Harry Kane leads Ballon d'Or 2026 trader sentiment at 30.6% implied probability due to his record goal output and domestic honors with Bayern Munich in the 2025-26 campaign, positioning the England captain as the standout individual performer heading into the World Cup. Kylian Mbappé (12.5%), Lamine Yamal (11.0%), Michael Olise (10.5%), and Ousmane Dembélé (9.3%) follow, reflecting strong club sea…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).