OpenFlowBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms. Current implied probability: 51% yes. Total volume: $10.8M. Resolves November 3, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Recent polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by about 6 points amid low presidential approval ratings near 35% and economic pressures from elevated fuel and input costs. This environment has expanded competitive Senate battlegrounds, with forecasters shifting Texas and Iowa races to toss-ups alongside Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, giving Democrats a narrow path to t…
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the p…