OpenFlowBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $11.9M. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Houthi forces in Yemen declared a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels on July 20, 2026, amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict, leading to targeted strikes on ships such as the Tihamah in mid-August and the Amzan tanker later that month. These actions, combined with insurance market withdrawals for high-risk tonnage and carrier decisions to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope or Suez, have…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET…