Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?. Current implied probability: 0% yes. Total volume: $5.9M. Resolves June 30, 2026. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
houthitrafficOilGeopolitics
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Opens Resolves
Total volume
$5.9M
24h volume
$126K
Liquidity
$233K
Open interest
$482K
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026
Comments
139
7d volume
$433K
30d volume
$752K
1yr volume
$1.0M
Competitive
94.3%
Odds history
#OutcomeChance
1
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?▼ 3.0% 1d▲ 2.5% 1w
1.0% spread
26%
2
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?▲ 0.5% 1d▲ 3.5% 1w▲ 1.5% 1m
2.0% spread
15%
3
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
1.0% spread
14%
4
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?▲ 1.5% 1d
0.4% spread
6%
5
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?▼ 0.2% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w
0.1% spread
0%
6
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?▼ 0.6% 1w▼ 21.3% 1m
0.3% spread
0%
7
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?▼ 0.3% 1d▼ 1.5% 1w▼ 10.4% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
8
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?▼ 0.1% 1d▼ 0.2% 1w▼ 7.8% 1m
0.1% spread
0%
9
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?▼ 0.3% 1w
0.1% spread
0%
10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?▼ 0.2% 1w
**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift o…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET…
