OpenFlow9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?. Current implied probability: 8% yes. Total volume: $312,012. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
The exceptionally low historical frequency of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes drives the 93.1% market-implied probability of “No.” USGS data show these events occur globally roughly once every 15–20 years on average, with only five recorded since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku quake; the largest recent event was an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025. Current clusters of M7+ activity fall within normal varia…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027,…