OpenFlow10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?. Current implied probability: 1% yes. Total volume: $813,455. Resolves January 1, 2027. Live odds aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi on OpenFlow.
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault segment is long enough to generate such energy release, with a hypothetical rupture needing to span thousands of kilometers across the planet. The record maximum remains the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5, consistent with the physical limits of subduction zone megathrusts and crustal mechanics. Ongoing global…
Rules summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027…